QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 11 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 10 августа 2024 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40810
Состояние солнечной активности на 10 августа 2024, 1239UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 10 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 290 / AP-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 11 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 280 / AP-индекс: 027
Прогноз на 12 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 275 / AP-индекс: 025
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 9 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M5.3 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on August 10. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta gamma delta). This region produced 6 further low-level M-Class flares and is the largest most complex region on the disk. An M4.5 flare with peak time 21:23 UTC August 09, was also recorded between NOAA AR 3777 and 3774. NOAA AR 3781 also produced isolated M-class flaring. NOAA AR 3775 and NOAA AR 3772 decayed and are about to rotate off the disk over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) mostly directed to the south-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 21:45 UTC on August 09, associated with the M4.5 flare with peak time 21:23 UTC. Initial analysis suggests that this CME may have a glancing blow at Earth late on August 12. A faint CME to the north east in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:54 UTC, possibly associated with the M5.3 flare at 02:37 UTC, is also being analysed. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime for most of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -5nT recorded. The solar wind speed decreased from around 440 to 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). At 11:57 UTC August 10 there was a jump in the interplanetary magnetic field up to 11 nT, likely associated with a possible CME arrival. Ongoing influence from CMEs, creating enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field, are expected on August 10. Further enhancements could be expected late on August 11, due to the possible arrival of the CME of August 08, associated with the X1.3 flare. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at unsettled to active conditions on August 10, with possible minor to moderate storm conditions on August 11 and 12 in response to possible CME arrivals. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk moving into a geoeffective position, from which any strong flares bring the possibly for a proton event impacting the Earth. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 273,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 09 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 306
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 011
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 010
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 266,
получено на основе анализа результатов 25 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
09 1156 1206 1213 S08E08 M1.4 1F ///3780 III/3II/2
09 1238 1243 1251 N15E22 M1.0 SF ///3781
09 1251 1259 1303 ////// M1.0 ///3780
09 2027 2037 2100 S09W55 M1.0 S ///3779 III/2
09 2110 2123 2150 ////// M4.5 ///3774 III/2VI/2II/2
09 2343 2350 2355 S12E02 M1.1 SN ///3780 IV/1III/2CTM/1
10 0052 0102 0107 N11E64 M1.3 SF ///3780 IV/1III/2VI/3
10 0214 0237 0252 S10E01 M5.3 2N ///3780 VI/3
10 0403 0411 0421 S13W03 M1.6 SF ///3780