QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 10 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 09 августа 2024 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40809
Состояние солнечной активности на 09 августа 2024, 1238UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 09 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 350 / AP-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 10 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 360 / AP-индекс: 028
Прогноз на 11 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 365 / AP-индекс: 030
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 1 X class flare and 4 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an X1.3 flare peaking at 19:35 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 19:29 UTC. NOAA AR 3774 and NOAA AR3780 are the other two largest and most complex regions on the disk. NOAA AR 3780 and 3781 also produced M-class flaring. The rest of the regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: An asymmetric halo CME mostly directed to the south-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:48 UTC August 08, associated with the X1.3 flare. Initial analysis suggests that this CME would have an Earth directed component and may impact earth late on August 11. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 6 nT with a minimum value of -6nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). There is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05. Stronger enhancements are possible from August 10, due to possible combined influence of the CMEs of August 07. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on August 09, with possible minor to moderate storm conditions on August 10 and 11 in response to possible CME arrivals. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk, moving towards a location that would be geoeffective. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 259,
получено на основе анализа результатов 12 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 08 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 336
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 011
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 009
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 299,
получено на основе анализа результатов 25 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
08 1124 1142 1152 ////// M1.6 N ///3777
08 1256 1300 1304 ////// M1.0 F ///3781
08 1336 1343 1352 ////// M1.5 F ///3777
08 1901 1935 1957 ////// X1.3 B ///3777 II/2I/2 1
08 2246 2251 2256 ////// M1.2 ///3780
09 1041 1117 1124 S09W28 M1.2 SF ///3777