QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 16 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 15 июля 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40715
Состояние солнечной активности на 15 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 15 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 229 / AP-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 16 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 225 / AP-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 17 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 220 / AP-индекс: 003
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with three M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma- Delta, Catania sunspot group 85) produced all of the M-class flaring activity (namely an M1.0 at 14 Jul 20:57 UTC, an M1.2 at 15 Jul 03:35 UTC, and an M2.7 at 15 Jul 09:37 UTC) and most of the C-class flares. Bright C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3751 (a C7 at 14 Jul 21:26 UTC) and NOAA AR 3744 (a C8 at 14 Jul 21:58 UTC). Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3738 with a small chance of an X-flare in the next 24 hours. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Coronal holes: A northern Coronal Hole (CH) with negative polarity stared crossing the central meridian during the past 24 hours. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 18 Jul. Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 270 and 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A high speed stream related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 10 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels and possibly rise to unsettled levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a small chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 240,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 14 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 234
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 010
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 007
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 220,
получено на основе анализа результатов 28 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
14 2050 2057 2103 ////// M1.0 85/3738
15 0329 0345 0355 ////// M1.2 F 85/3738
15 0921 0937 1008 S07W66 M2.7 SN 85/3738 III/1VI/1